Wednesday Discussion : Arctic Front Approaches

Colder air has pushed into the Hudson Valley, but some even colder air is on the way.  We’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine on Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 40s.  SW winds gusting 10 to 20mph during the day will give us wind chills in the 30s and low 40s.

But this is out ahead of an approaching arctic cold front.  The front should reach the Hudson Valley between 3pm and 7pm, and it will bring some scattered valley rain showers, along with mountain snow showers.  But as the arctic front passes, snow squalls could reach even into the valley areas near sunset.

This could make for some tricky PM commuting on Wednesday.  Something we’ll try to monitor through the day.  But you should expect some scattered rain and wet snow showers late Wednesday afternoon and evening… followed by rapidly falling temperatures and frigid wind chills.  Low temperatures Wednesday night should fall into the low and mid 20s… with wind chills in the low to mid teens.  Make sure you prepare accordingly.

Spring may have started on Tuesday… but it’s going to feel very much like winter for the next few days.

Tuesday Discussion : Spring Arrives & Winter Returns

Spring officially arrives at 11:06pm on Tuesday March 19th.  So naturally, winter will return on Tuesday.

A frontal boundary will swing through the northeast, as a deep trough dives southward from Canada.  This will bring a batch of very cold air south from Canada, and into the Northeast.  This will cause gusty winds out of the NW at 20 to 30 mph Tuesday afternoon, and by late in the day, scattered flurries and wet snow showers are possible (mixed with rain in the valley areas)

In addition to the blustery conditions generating lake effect wet snow showers… the winds will cause the cold air mass to feel sharply colder.  Temps on Tuesday afternoon are expected to reach the upper 30s and low 40s in the valley areas (mid 30s in Catskills).  When you factor in the NW winds gusting over 20mph at times… the ‘real feel’ wind chills will dip into the 20s and low 30s!!

It was only a few days ago when high temperatures in the Hudson Valley were pushing 70°, so this will feel like a bit of a shock to the system.  Wednesday looks cold as well, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s, before a reinforcing shot of arctic air dives into the Northeast on Thursday.  That will result in highs in the low to mid 30s Thursday afternoon… with wind chills in the 20s during the afternoon.

All of this sets the stage for a potential winter weather event for Friday night and Saturday.

Another trough dives south from Canada on Friday… and at the same time a coastal low pressure system develops in the southeast.  The details of how this system develops are still very unclear.  At this time, it looks like a period of wet snow is likely to develop Friday night into Saturday.  The main question that needs to be answered, is what happens on Saturday.  Most guidance suggests that milder air moves in on Saturday and turns the wet snow into a cold rain.  A couple inches of wet snow appear possible at this time… before a changeover to a soaking rain Saturday afternoon.  Some guidance brings a coastal low pressure up the coast along with a soaking rain for the I-95 corridor, but other models keep the low pressure offshore.  So, we’ll need to watch this closely over the next few days.

As far as Tuesday is concerned… let’s prepare for the arrival of Spring, with a return of a wintry air mass.

Sunday Turns Breezy, Continued Mild

A cold front will swing through the region Sunday morning, but it won’t cause temps to plummet. Instead, we’ll see clouds mixing with breaks of sunshine, and highs in the mid to upper 50s in the valley (upper 40s in the Catskills). When the front passes early in the morning, a few scattered showers are possible, along with a few mountain snow flurries. Overnight temperatures will gradually fall Sunday night into Monday… getting near the freezing mark by Sunrise Monday.
From there, the much colder air moves in Tuesday, with highs near 40° expected, and wind chills in the 20s and 30s. A much colder week coming up, than what we just experienced. Have a great Sunday!!

Thursday Discussion: Spring Preview Continues…

Another beautiful day already underway as we approach mid day. Temps in the low to mid 60s across the region, with abundant sunshine and blue skies… will continue to climb this afternoon and approach 70° across some parts of the Hudson Valley. This afternoon will feel more like early May than mid March.

Clouds will advance on the region tonight, and give us a more unsettled end to the work week. Clouds and a few scattered showers are likely before sunrise on Friday. The scattered showers are possible thru the morning, and will leave us with a mainly cloudy sky for our Friday afternoon, along with highs in the mid to upper 50s (which is still about 10° above average for mid March).

Looking to the weekend, things appear a bit unsettled. Saturday looks mostly cloudy, but Saturday night into Sunday could see some scattered showers, but it doesn’t look like a complete washout. Highs both days are expected to be in the upper 50s to near 60°.

Enjoy the gorgeous weather!!

Beautiful Wednesday Weather

Tuesday was beautiful, but Wednesday looks even better!
Sunshine mixing with some fair weather clouds and a warm SW wind. Afternoon highs across the valley are expected to reach into the mid 60s on Wednesday, which is about 20° above average. We’ll see similar conditions on Thursday, with a few more clouds than what we’ll see on Wednesday. Afternoon highs however, will be very similar to Wednesday… reaching into the mid and possibly upper 60s on Thursday as well.
As we approach Friday, a frontal boundary will slowly approach the Hudson Valley from the north, and that could spread clouds and possibly some scattered showers by Friday morning. The afternoon on Friday doesn’t look like a total washout, but we’ll have to monitor the details for Friday closely. The weekend looks mostly cloudy and a bit unsettled… with a few scattered showers possible through the weekend… with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s through the weekend.
Some colder air likely returns next week, but the details remain a bit fuzzy at this time, so we’ll have more on that when the details are more clear. For now, we hope you’re able to have a wonderful Wednesday with some superb Spring-like weather!

Monday’s Weather : Wind Advisories in Effect

A blustery start to the work week across the Hudson Valley, thanks to a passing upper level low pressure system, which will bring strong NW winds Sunday night into Monday. Gusts between 30mph and 50mph are possible around the region. Make sure you plan accordingly and secure any loose outdoor items that may blow away.
These winds on Monday will also add quite a chill to the air. Morning temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the upper 20s and low 30s… but with gusts over 30mph expected, that will give us wind chills in the teens and 20s to start the day on Monday.
Our afternoon highs on Monday will climb into the mid 40s… but with howling NW winds gusting over 30 to 50mph… afternoon wind chills will be held down in the mid 30s. Our start to the work week will be a blustery and cold one.
However… it will be short lived, as SW winds will return quickly on Tuesday, and we’ll watch temperatures spike into the mid and upper 50s on Tuesday, and then likely into the 60s on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday… possibly hitting 70° in some places on Thursday!! Some of the warmest temperatures we’ve seen in months. Those looking for a spring preview will be very happy with the weather by mid week.
But for Monday, be sure to bundle up… because winter isn’t giving up just yet. Have a great start to the week!

Sunday Discussion : Blustery and Chilly

The storm system from Saturday has exited the region.  That will allow sunshine  and blue skies to return to the region.  For Sunday, expect clouds to mix with sunshine.  Northwest winds will be gusting up to 15 to 25mph, making afternoon highs in the mid 40s… feel more like the mid 30s across parts of the valley.

The chill intensifies as the night goes on Sunday night.  The NW winds gusting over 30mph at times, combined with temperatures falling into the upper 20s and low 30s.

This will make for a bitter cold start to the work week and school on Monday morning.  Temps recently have been very mild (roughly 20 degrees above average)… so this chill will feel even colder than it is.  With Monday morning wind chills in the teens and low 20s across the valley… and single digits and teens in the Catskills.

The chill extends into Monday afternoon… with the wind gusts peaking at 25 to 45mph… and locally 55mph in the Catskills.  This will ensure that afternoon wind chills on Monday afternoon don’t get much above freezing.  (despite temperatures in the low to mid 40s).  But big changes are on the way… with southwest winds returning on Tuesday.  This will warm conditions quickly across the Hudson Valley.  By mid week… we could see highs in the low to mid 60s across the Hudson Valley (roughly 20 degrees above average)

A taste of spring is on the way for the Hudson Valley by the middle of this week.  Hopefully some of you will be able to get out and enjoy it!



Saturday 5:30pm Storm Update : Flood Watch in Effect

Current Radar as of 5pm Saturday

Rain is pushing through the valley, and areas of light to moderate rain are falling as of sunset on Saturday.  Some wet snow is mixing in across the Catskills, with temperatures in the mid 30s.  2 to 5 inches of wet snow are possible are possible above 1500 feet in the Catskills.  Even there, the wet snow should change to rain as the mid level temperatures warm above freezing.

The Next 6 Hours…

A gap in the precipitation due to some dry air, is pushing NE into northwest NJ, NE PA and soon to be the Lower Hudson Valley.  This will likely cause rainfall to taper to light rain showers and drizzle between 5:30 and 7:30pm across the region.  But we do anticipate the radar to fill back in behind the area of dry air… and periods of moderate to heavy rain should re-develop between 7 and 9pm across the Hudson Valley.  Then moderate to heavy rain is expected to until midnight or so.

The rain pushes NE rapidly around midnight, and shortly after midnight the rain is projected to taper off…

Futurecast Radar : 2am Sunday

The rain should taper off between 12am and 3am from SW to NE.  From there we could see a few scattered rain showers or wet snow showers… as temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30s overnight.  Total Rainfall still remains projected around 1 inch on average, with some locally higher amounts possible.  That’s why the region is under a Flood Watch.

Then on Sunday we’ll see winds increase out of the northwest… giving us a blustery and cold Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Sunday afternoon wind gusts at 20 to 30mph, combining with temps in the low to mid 40s, to generate wind chills in the 30s.  Sunday night, temps fall into the upper 20s and low 30s… resulting in wind chills in the in the teens and 20s.  Monday looks blustery and cold, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s… and wind chills in the 20s.  More updates as we move through the evening…


Storm Discussion : Saturday Afternoon/Night Rainfall

Another storm system quickly marching across the country from west to east, will spread rainfall across the Hudson Valley Saturday afternoon.

– 12pm to 4pm : rain develops from west to east (wet snow possible above 1500 feet)
– 6pm to 12am : heaviest rain expected
– 12am to 6am : rain ends from SW to NE

– Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain expected
– Catskills could see wet snow accumulation of 3 to 6 inches (especially above 1500 feet)

Rain will develop Saturday afternoon, as early as 12pm near the NY/PA border, and as late as 3 or 4pm near the NY/CT border.  Temperatures at the onset of precipitation are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s across the valley, Rain could mix with sleet and wet snow at the onset, especially in the higher elevations.  The Catskills, and areas above 1500 feet could stay wet snow for several hours and see several inches of accumulation with temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

The heaviest rain likely falls between 6pm and 12am, as the area of low pressure passes very closely to NYC shortly after midnight.  The precipitation should taper off before sunrise on Sunday.  By the time it does, around 1 inch of rain is common… with some areas slightly less, and some locations up to 1.5 inches.  This could cause some stream and river flooding around the region, especially in the Catskills.  With regard to the Catskills… some guidance suggests that snowfall accumulations of several inches are possible.  But you can clearly see that the valley areas are almost entirely rain… with temperatures expected to be in the upper 30s across most valley areas.

We’ll have to watch things closely as we go through the day on Saturday.  Expect more updates as we get closer.


Thursday’s Weather : Drying Out Slowly

After a fully saturated Wednesday across the valley, with rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches on average… We’ll see the precipitation exit the Hudson Valley around sunrise on Thursday.  The steady rain should taper off before sunrise… but a few leftover showers and areas of drizzle are possible through the Thursday AM commute.  By mid-morning, the majority of the area should be mainly cloudy… but dry.  Clouds will linger through the day… with a few peeks of sun possible before sunset.  Afternoon highs on Thursday should be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Friday looks to see some breaks of sunshine to close out the work week.  The ridge in the eastern US continues to hold, which means we’ll have a mild day on Friday.  Currently we expect a mix of clouds and sunshine… and highs in the mid 50s.

Next Storm System : Saturday Night / Sunday (mainly rain)

Clouds advance back into the region on Saturday ahead of our next storm system.

Rain is likely to develop by late afternoon or early evening on Saturday.  An upper level low pressure will drop in from Canada, and could bring enough cold air to result in high elevation wet snow, but this variable needs to be monitored in the next 2 days.  Periods of rain are then likely to fall through Saturday night, before tapering off Sunday morning.  The track and strength of the upper level low need to be monitored… but in general, around 1 inch of rain (precipitation) is expected by Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures on Sunday are likely to be in the upper 30s to low 40s… along with the roughly 3/4 to 1 inch of rainfall.  We’ll be monitoring this storm system closely in the next day or two.  Check back for more details in the coming days… otherwise, have a great Thursday!