HVW

Monday Discussion : Frost Advisories & Freeze Warnings

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* Frost Advisories and Freeze Warning in Effect for Portions of the Hudson Valley *
The National Weather Service in Upton Long Island (NYC Office) has issued Frost Advisories for Putnam, Rockland and Westchester Counties… along with a Freeze Warning for Orange County. The remaining counties in the Hudson Valley are covered by either the Albany or Binghamton Offices, and no advisories have been issued yet. It stands to reason however, that if advisories are in effect for our southernmost counties, that similar (or colder) conditions can be expected further north across the northern HV. Please plan for a hard frost, and possible hard freeze tonight.
**Orange County**
Freeze Warning issued April 22 at 3:55AM EDT until April 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Upton NY
* WHAT…Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected.
* WHERE…Orange County.
* WHEN…From midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday.
* IMPACTS…Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Instructions: Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
** Rockland, Westchester & Putnam Counties**
Frost Advisory issued April 22 at 3:55AM EDT until April 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Upton NY
* WHAT…Temperatures falling into the mid 30s will result in frost formation.
* WHERE…Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York.
* WHEN…From midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday.
* IMPACTS…Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Instructions: Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Thursday Weather Discussion : Raw and Chilly

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Low clouds and drizzle associated with a stalled frontal boundary have parked themselves over the Hudson Valley and eastern NY.
The radar doesn’t tell the story, because the low clouds and drizzle don’t really register on radar… but a persistent mist along with a few steadier rain showers will linger throughout the day on Thursday. The low level moisture will keep temperatures pinned in the 40s across the valley, roughly 15 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year. Not the nicest of days by mid April standards.
 
These conditions will be with us into Friday as well, with conditions improving a bit Friday morning. A few breaks in the clouds are possible, and temperatures should climb into the 50s. But a new approaching frontal boundary will bring a chance of more widespread, heavier rain showers around mid day to early afternoon on Friday. Not a washout, but you’ll have to factor the shower threat into your afternoon plans.
 
Make sure you have the heavy winter coat handy for today. The chill in the air will remind you of late February or early March. Have a great afternoon!

Wednesday Weather Discussion – Early Afternoon Showers

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After 2 completely gorgeous days in the Hudson Valley, clouds and scattered showers will return on Wednesday along with an approaching frontal boundary. Early morning sunshine likely fades behind increasing clouds by mid to late morning. That sets the stage for scattered showers approaching from the west between noon and 4pm. The scattered showers appear light for the most part, but a few localized heavier showers can’t be ruled out.
The clouds and showers will also help keep temperatures down from where they were on recent days. Temps may climb into the upper 50s and low 60s around the region by mid day on Wednesday… but with the arrival of the rain showers, temperatures are likely to fall into the low to mid 50s during the afternoon on Wednesday.
The instability will be with us through Wednesday night, and on into Thursday. Low clouds, scattered showers and areas of drizzle will linger through Thursday… keeping temperatures quite raw and chilly for this time of year. Expect temperatures to spend much of the time in the 40s Wednesday night and Thursday.
Have a great Wednesday, Hudson Valley!
-Bill

Sunday Discussion : Potential Late PM Storms?

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A chilly and rather raw Saturday will transition to a mildly warm Sunday afternoon across the Hudson Valley.  The downside is that the warmer temperatures may come with the threat of strong to severe late day T-Storms.

Sunshine will mix with clouds early on Sunday… but clouds will advance again by late morning.  Late morning through early afternoon are likely to be mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers possible.  The key to the forecast is what happens after that.  Much of the guidance suggests that the clouds give way to increasing sunshine between 2pm and 4pm on Sunday… which would give us several hours of sunshine.  That sunshine would work with strong SW winds to warm temperatures quickly from the low to mid 50s around lunch time… to the upper 60s and low 70s by late afternoon.  If that happens… our radar could look very unsettled as sunset approaches…

Some guidance is suggesting a severe squall line sets up and takes aim on the Hudson Valley between 5pm and 10pm (peak risk around 7pm to 8pm).  If the atmosphere destabilizes due to the afternoon sunshine… T-storms will likely develop and spread across our area.  Damaging wind gusts are the biggest threat… with a 30% chance in the Enhanced area… a 15% to 30% chance of occurrence is likely for the rest of the region.

We’ll have to watch as we go through the day, and see if the skies remain mostly cloudy… or if the skies clear early in the afternoon.  If the clouds hold on longer than expected, the atmosphere may stabilize and cause the squall line to be weaker than projected.  Check back Sunday afternoon for updates on the situation.

Wednesday Discussion: Raw & Windy April Weather

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A very raw and windy Wednesday shaping up for the Hudson Valley…

A low-pressure system near Chicago has stalled out but has sent waves of moisture eastward toward the Hudson Valley and northeast.

Futurecast Radar : 6am to 8pm Wednesday

Periods of rain will move in during the morning, and be with us throughout the day.  Along with the soaking rainfall, winds will also begin to pick up out of the east ahead of the frontal boundary.  While some computer guidance projects wind gusts over 50mph, the good news is that a temperature inversion in the mid levels should prevent the strongest wind gusts from reaching the surface.  Even so, a Wind Advisory is in effect for parts of the area, so be sure to plan for a raw, blustery, soaked Wednesday.  In addition to Wind Advisories, we have many Flood Watches in effect around the valley, for another 1 to 2 inches of rainfall by Thursday afternoon…

Snow Threat is Gradually diminishing…

For several days, we have been watching for the potential of a coastal low-pressure system intensifying quickly… and causing the rain to end as a period of heavy, wet snow.

However, as we get closer to the event… we are noticing that temperatures at the mid levels of the atmosphere are just a bit too warm to support snow for many places.  So despite surface temperatures in the mid 30s for many locations Wednesday evening… temperatures 5000 feet up are projected to be several degrees above freezing through midnight Wednesday night.  By that time, most of the precipitation will have pushed east of the Hudson Valley.

This graphic shows the scenario most likely at this time.  You can see the cold air is struggling to rush into the mid levels by 2 or 3am Thursday across the eastern Hudson Valley.  The most likely outcome is rain mixing with wet snow in the valley before sunrise… with some areas getting a slushy coating to an inch of wet snow on grassy surfaces.  The best chance for accumulation over 1 or 2 inches would be in the Catskills above 1200 feet.

It’s going to be a very tricky situation in terms of the outcome.  The calendar reading April 3rd is a major factor against the idea of snow, so we need a cold invasion of air from Canada to allow it to snow.  While that cold air does arrive Thursday morning… by the time it does, the precipitation has likely exited.  So we’ll monitor the situation as it develops on Wednesday, and if it appears more likely to snow in some areas… we’ll share that information.  Otherwise, it’s probably a safe bet to plan for a sloppy and raw Thursday AM commute, that could feature a few slick spots.  This way you can adapt either way, depending on how the details shake out.

Be sure to check back for more updates later in the day on Wednesday… Have a great Wednesday… bundle up and stay dry!

-Bill

Tuesday Discussion : Rainy Weather… Eyes on Wed Night

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After a dry start to the work week, things will turn rainy and raw for our Tuesday.

Rain showers will develop during the morning hours and expand in coverage and intensity during the day.  The morning commute looks rather dry, but that will change by mid morning across the region.

Futurecast Radar : 6am Tuesday – 12am Wednesday

Temperatures in the valley are expected to linger in the low to mid 40s all day.  Make sure you keep a coat and umbrella handy for your Tuesday, as roughly an inch of rain is expected between now and sunrise on Wednesday…

Wednesday looks a lot like Tuesday… with periods of rain expected.  Another inch of rain is expected between 8am Wednesday and 8am Thursday (on top of the 1 inch of rain expected Tuesday into Wed AM).  The big question that becomes interesting on Wednesday… will be just how cold do the temperatures get across the region?  Most of the guidance gives us a cold rain on Wednesday, but afternoon temperatures are likely held down in the 30s!

The key will be with regard to the details.  Some guidance like the HRRR (and even the NAM) has a combination of rain mixing with sleet during the afternoon hours on Wednesday.  Those falling temperatures will mean everything with regard to the details of what kind of weather we see Wednesday night into Thursday.

The HRRR futurecast is aggressive with the southward push of the sleet on Wednesday afternoon and evening… which is an ominous signal for Wednesday night into Thursday.

What is going to happen Wednesday Night – Thursday???

At this time, it truly is a bit of a toss up on how things unfold.  Temperatures are going to be so close to freezing… that it will likely depend on how rapidly the coastal low pressure intensifies Wednesday night.  If the coastal low begins to bomb out and intensify quickly… it could develop an area of heavy precipitation, that with the atmospheric temperature profile so marginal… we could see a burst of 3 to 6 hours of heavy, wet snow across parts of the region between midnight and sunrise on Thursday morning.  It’s also possible that the early April temps are just too warm to support snow, and a wintry mix of slushy snow and rain fall.  The details will continue to be worked out slowly on Tuesday.  No matter what… an ugly week of weather lies ahead.  Check back for updates as we get closer…

-Bill

Monday Morning Discussion: Will it Snow this Week?

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April 1st arrives on Monday, and a common ‘April Fools’ joke in weather forecasting is to toss out a forecast for snow.  Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your point of view), this time the conversation about snow is not a joke.  If the upper air pattern shifts properly over the next several days, we could be in position for some wet snow Wednesday into Thursday.  Let’s go through the setup…

A wave of low pressure will push into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday into Wednesday, and that will spread rain eastward into the Hudson Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Chilly air will linger with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Blocking to our north will prevent the storm from progressing eastward, and the low pressure will get trapped somewhere between Ohio and Michigan.  That part of the setup is pretty well understood… the main question being how strong the initial storm gets, and how far north the low pressure moves before stalling.  This is important, because it will determine the details on phase 2 of the storm.

A coastal storm will develop Wednesday night, and track northeastward.  The intensity and track of the initial low pressure system will help determine where the secondary coastal low pressure develops… and how much energy remains for the coastal low pressure to intensify.  This all becomes very important… because if the coastal storm intensifies quickly, and tracks far enough south and east… temperatures over the Hudson Valley could crash Wednesday night and heavy precipitation could fall in the form of snow.

If the coastal low pressure is weaker like the GFS model (above) suggests, the Hudson Valley sees cold rain mix with wet snow Wednesday night into Thursday.  If the coastal low intensifies quickly and tracks further southeast like the Canadian and European models are currently suggesting… the Hudson Valley would see rain on Wednesday change to a heavy wet snow Wednesday night into Thursday.   If the colder solution ends up being correct… accumulations could be quite substantial, especially for early April.

 

You can see the wide range of snowfall possibilities… from nothing at all, to nearly a foot of snow in some portions of the valley.  We want to emphasize… it is extremely late in the season, and accumulating snow is very hard to come by.  We need multiple factors to come together at the same time.

What do we need?

  1. We need the first piece of the storm to be weaker and further south… this will allow cold air to filter into New England from a Canadian high pressure system.  The first storm being weaker and further south prevents milder air at the mid levels from getting too far north, and sets the stage for favorable conditions when the coastal storm develops…
  2. We need the second storm to be stronger and further south… the rapid intensification of the coastal low pressure will generate dynamic cooling, rapidly rising and cooling the air mass, then the heavy precipitation pulls that colder air down through the atmosphere… cooling the column of air from top to bottom.

If those two things happen, we could very well have a winter storm to contend with on Wednesday evening and Thursday.  Keep in mind… we will have rain across the region Tuesday into Wednesday… but Wednesday night into Thursday is the period that could see wet snow… IF… the conditions unfold properly.  Be sure to check back for more details Monday and Tuesday… as we get closer to the storm unfolding.

-Bill

Thursday Discussion : Unsettled, Damp and Cool

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A frontal boundary slowly pushing east has brought clouds and scattered showers to the Hudson Valley. Many areas saw a period of moderate to heavy rain showers late Wednesday afternoon as a result. That boundary will slowly push east, and a low-pressure system will develop in the Southeast US on Wednesday night and move NE early on Thursday. This could spread a period of steady rain into the lower Hudson Valley before sunrise on Thursday.
The map shown depicts rainfall totals by Thursday night, and you can see where the heavier rainfall totals are projected to be. The best chance for periods of rain will be areas south of I-84, as well as areas east of the Hudson River (the southeastern half of the valley). The further north and west you go, the fewer rain showers are expected… and so the lower rainfall totals as well.
 
The recent trend in data has been to push the rain showers on Thursday a bit further to the east… which if correct, will mean less rainfall for all of us on Thursday, and more of a cloudy and damp day instead. We’ll see how it unfolds as the coastal low pressure moves northeast on Thursday. Either way, a damp, cool (mid 40s for highs) and cloudy day is on tap for Thursday.
 
Weekend Preview :
Fri: Mix of clouds & sun, highs in mid to upper 40s
Sat: Partly cloudy, highs upper 40s to low 50s
Sun: Clouds & sun, high in low to mid 50s.
 
Stay Dry on Thursday, Hudson Valley!
-Bill

Monday Discussion : Monday Sunshine fades behind Midweek Clouds

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A beautiful start to the work week, at least by mid March standards.
Abundant sunshine and blue skies along with seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 50s will feel quite nice to kick off our week. But a blocking pattern will allow for moisture off the Atlantic Ocean to spread clouds and mid level moisture that could kick off some patchy light showers and drizzle Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday across the Hudson Valley. This will by no means be a washout, but it will keep the skies mostly cloudy Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Highs all 3 days should be in the low to mid 50s… with Wednesday being the mildest of the 3.
 
Then as a cold front reaches the coast by Thursday, a low pressure system is likely to develop in the Southeast US along the boundary. That low will push northeast, up the coastline, and could spread rain showers into the Hudson Valley and northeast Thursday afternoon and Friday. The position of the boundary will be key to determining the track of the storm, so we’ll watch it closely. The best chances for rain will be closer to the coast… as much of the guidance keeps the low pressure a bit offshore. But it’s something we’ll need to watch closely through the week. To be clear, this coastal storm would be all rain, except for the Catskills… as temperatures Thursday and Friday are projected to be in the upper 40s to low 50s.
 
We’ll have more discussions on the weather through the week. Have a great start to your week, Hudson Valley!
 
-Bill

Saturday Storm Discussion: Cold, Soaking Rain

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A cold, raw day is in store for the Hudson Valley on Saturday.  Rain will develop before sunrise, and fall steadily throughout the day.  By the time the storm exits late on Saturday, a general 2 to 2.5 inches of rain are possible across the region.

As the rain develops between 1am and 4am… temperatures are projected to be in the low to mid 30s.  It’s possible that some pockets of freezing rain and sleet could develop in that timeframe.  But by sunrise, we do expect all precipitation to change over to a cold, plain rain.

Temperatures on Saturday will likely hold in the mid 30s to low 40s around the region, making for a very raw and nasty day across the region.  The periods of rain will become steadier and heavier as we go through the day.  By early afternoon, most of the region should be experiencing a steady moderate to heavy rain.

The rain should taper off from SW to NE between 4pm and 8pm, as the low pressure passes by to our SE.  Once the low pressure passes by, cold air will quickly return to the valley, and temperatures will tumble back into the 20s and low 30s by midnight.  Some areas of black ice are possible, depending on how much time passes between the end of the rain, and the air temps falling below freezing.  By Sunday morning, it will feel like winter once again…

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s on Sunday morning… but NW winds gusting over 20mph at times should make for “real feel” wind chills in the teens and even some single digits.  Make sure you’re ready for a quick return to winter’s chill behind this storm system.

We’ll have updates on the storm through the day on Saturday…

-Bill

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